AFTER A season in which Europe's Group 1 races have been dominated by trainer Aidan O'Brien and jockey Johnny Murtagh, today's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in Paris would normally be seen as an avenue for them to triumphantly assert their supremacy with either the mighty Duke of Marmalade or Coronation Cup winner Soldier Of Fortune.
But there's a rather large fly in the Coolmore-Ballydoyle ointment, in the shape of France's fabulous filly Zarkava. Unbeaten in her six starts to date, Zarkava stunned the racing world with her performance in the Prix Vermeille, a recognised trial f
or the Arc over the Longchamp course and distance, which took place three weeks ago.
Alain de Royer-Dupre's stable star turned the Group 1 event into a procession, setting a race record on good to soft ground. Though no Vermeille winner has gone on to win the Arc since Three Troikas in 1979, Zarkava's display was of such monumental quality that she really cannot be opposed for today's race.
She lost six lengths at the start and was last of the 12 runners turning into the straight, but Zarkava then exploded down the outside under today's jockey, Christophe Soumillon, to take the lead half a furlong from home. At the line, Soumillon was easing her down, so comprehensive was the win.
The winner of the French 1,000 Guineas and French Oaks was already in most people's notebooks as a likely Arc favourite. After the Prix Vermeille, she went under the heading 'certainty'.
Bred in Ireland by the Aga Khan, she will race in his familiar green colours, and is likely to have the same good to soft ground which she relished three weeks ago.
There's no excitement in tipping short-priced favourites to win, and the only hope for value is that the English and Irish invaders of Paris pile their money onto the Duke or another entrant to force out Zarkava's odds. But all the evidence points to the filly becoming the first of her sex since Urban Sea in 1993 to lift the Arc.
O'Brien may not even run Duke of Marmalade if the ground gets any softer and Soldier Of Fortune can be no more than an each-way chance, a remark which applies also to last year's second Youmzain, though it would be a wonderful story if the five-year-old could win for trainer Mick Channon, so badly injured in a recent car crash.
If the Duke runs, we could see a great tussle, but it will be an almighty shock if he makes it six Group 1 wins in a row by prevailing over Zarkava, not least because she is getting 11lbs in weight from O'Brien's star. It really should be Zarkava first, the rest nowhere.
It's a big week for racing in Scotland, with today's traditional 'Arc' day meeting at Kelso beginning the new season of National Hunt racing at the Borders course.
The Support Childline Intermediate Hurdle at 3.25 could well go to Lucinda Russell's useful looking Gray Mountain, who is on a hat-trick and won his last outing at Perth in promising fashion.
With York undergoing drainage work, the £30,000 Rockingham Stakes heads north to Ayr on Friday to be the centrepiece of a seven-race card sponsored by Bank of Scotland Corporate.
Residents of York will be allowed in free on Friday, as long as they book before 5pm on Thursday by calling 0870-8505666. Using a fake accent a la Michael Parkinson or Geoffrey Boycott will not be enough, as addresses and post codes will be checked.
On Saturday, Musselburgh racecourse will also stage a transplanted race from York, with the £60,000 National Express York Sprint Cup as the feature event in the East Lothian course's richest-ever raceday with £150,000 of prize money and Channel 4 will be in attendance. With only one Flat meeting left at Musselburgh after Saturday, racecourse general manager Bill Farnsworth said: "We expect some very strong, high quality runners to make the trip and it's a great way to end our best Flat season ever before preparing for our National Hunt fixtures."
The full article contains 705 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
