IF HE were to retire today, nobody could fault Tony McCoy. With his personal ambition of 3,000 winners now achieved after 15 seasons of jumps racing in Britain, the man from Co Antrim, now at the age of 34, could walk away from race-riding in glory.
He will not do so, for McCoy really wants to win that one big race which has eluded him: the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on April 4 – his one remaining unfulfilled ambition as a jockey.
It's a given that McCoy is a driven man, that he a
lways wants to win. That's why the punters love him. Yet he would be the first to tell you that a rider can only win if he has a horse under him that is capable of doing so. Which is why I believe he has not one, but two outstanding chances of winning this year's Grand National.
Last year's second, the Arthur Moore-trained King John's Castle, and Butler's Cabin are both owned by JP McManus, who pays McCoy a considerable retainer to ride his horses. McCoy will have the pick of the pair, or any of the five others owned by the Limerick Kid and entered for the big race – Hobbs Hill, Reveillez, L'Ami, Can't Buy Time and Garde Champetre.
Any of these latter five has a chance, but I suspect McCoy will wait until near the day to see the likely going before plumping for one of McManus's main pair.
Butler's Cabin is trained by Jonjo O'Neill and is a horse which ticks nearly all the boxes as a potential National winner.
It is no surprise that, even though McCoy has yet to state his riding preferences, Butler's Cabin is sharing ante-post favouritism with Paul Nicholls' new star Big Fella Thanks – but he's only a seven-year-old and no horse of that age has won the National since Bogskar in 1940.
In last year's National, Butler's Cabin looked all over a winner before falling at Becher's on the second circuit. It was the second time that McCoy was stymied when seeming to be on the likely winner as Clan Royal was seemingly cantering to victory when he was carried out, also at second Becher's, in 2005.
Not the least of the reasons why Butler's Cabin is a serious contender is that official handicapper Phil Smith has given the 2007 Irish Grand National winner a real deal at the weights, giving him a very fair 10st 5lbs – a full 11lb less than he carried in the race last year.
Perhaps even more significantly, Smith allotted a top weight of 11st 10lbs to Exotic Dancer, who is also trained by O'Neill. If the Irishman decides to keep that classy animal in the race, the weights will not change and that will hand a significant advantage to Butler's Cabin.
Last year, King John's Castle ran and jumped superbly under Paul Carberry to finish second, but he has yet to race this season. Moore is thought to be looking for a hurdle race to use as a freshener to get the horse just right for Aintree, and with a pound less to carry in this year's National, the 10-year-old has a serious chance of going one better.
Forget the poor form shown by Butler's Cabin this season. He has been aimed at Aintree and O'Neill will get the horse fit and ready. Moore, too, is a master of preparing a horse for a race.
My advice is to wait and see which horse McCoy chooses. I suspect he'll go for Butler's Cabin but King John's Castle could yet maintain Ireland's terrific recent run of National victories.
Go with whatever McCoy chooses, and be assured there could be no better pilot aboard. It is surely time for him to land that elusive National.
