TAKEN AT face value, next weekend's two big races at Newmarket are really only the early season championship races over a mile for either sex. Except that they are the Guineas, the first two Classics of the season, and that makes all the difference.
In the modern world of strict segregation between colts and fillies, a maximum of six horses per year can win a Classic. That fact alone puts the winners in a category of their own, but add in all the great tradition and history of the Classics, and
the two three-year-olds which pass the post first at Newmarket next weekend will join the pantheon of racing greats.
One thing is almost certain: due to the way modern owners, breeders and trainers operate, the winner of either the stanjames.com 2,000 Guineas on Saturday or the stanjames.com 1,000 Guineas on Sunday is highly unlikely to go on to complete the Triple Crown by adding the Derby or Oaks and St Leger to the respective mile Classic.
At the beginning of the last century it happened with frequent regularity. Diamond Jubilee (1900), Rock Sand (1903), Pommern (1915), Gay Crusader (1917) and Gainsborough (1918) all lifted the colts' Triple Crown. Since then only Barham in 1935 and the legendary Nijinksy in 1970 have achieved the feat for the boys.
The last Triple Crown winner of either sex was Oh So Sharp who did in it 1985. What is even more telling in this age of specialist milers is that since Oh So Sharp's Classic season, only three fillies, Midway Lady (1986), Salsabil (1990) and Kazzia (2003) have won the 1,000 Guineas-Oaks double and it is a full 20 years since Nashwan was the last colt to do the 2,000 Guineas-Derby double.
Going by the recent trends, the Guineas winners will be bred to be milers and will have been trained with the race as a specific target. Their trainers will be bringing them to a peak on the day, rather than use the Guineas as a trial for the Derby or Oaks.
We will have to leave aside all speculation on the 1,000 Guineas until owner George Strawbridge decides whether to run either Fantasia or Rainbow View or both next Sunday. Strawbridge is the most sporting of Americans, but why send one out to be beaten when he can probably win both the English and French 1,000 Guineas? On all known evidence, both would win either race at a canter.
Two colts fit the "early season miler" bill exactly for the 2,000 Guineas. Jim Bolger has had a remarkable start to the Flat season in Ireland, and his tough and battle-hardened Dewhurst Stakes winner Intense Focus has been aimed at Newmarket all winter.
Intense Focus was not too disappointing in finishing second in Leopardstown's 2,000 Guineas Trial last month, looking exactly like a horse which would come to the boil in its next race.
There are rumblings in Ireland that Aidan O'Brien's quiet start to the season may be about to explode in a plethora of victories, but that may happen around Derby time for which O'Brien has the favourite Fame and Glory. No one would be surprised, however, if Ballydoyle produced yet another 2,000 Guineas winner, possibly with Mastercraftsman.
The impressive victory of Delegator in the Craven Stakes and the confidence of his shrewd trainer Brian Meehan makes the son of Dansili the best home hope for next Saturday. I reckon Intense Focus has the edge, however, and take the Irish colt to beat Delegator in a close race.
The full article contains 616 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
