DUE TO PUBLIC demand, or at least because my fellow bankrupt from the local bookie's shop asked me to, I am happy to once again go over my Aintree Grand National betting system and provisionally tip the horses that will carry my money next Saturday.
You may laugh, but in eight of the last nine years I have made money on the National, which is a record that extends to no other race. It is because the National is unique that serious trends can be spotted and acted upon.
My system is based on e
liminating entrants to leave only those who meet strict criteria, then betting each way on the best three or four that are left. It has yielded four winners in nine years – Papillon at 10-1 in 2000, Hedgehunter at 7-1 in 2005, Silver Birch at 33s two years ago, and Comply or Die at 7-1 last year, though I only jumped on him and went off Cloudy Lane literally an hour before the race because the ground was better for David Pipe and Timmy Murphy's horse.
That's an important point about the National: do not make your final selections until you are sure of the conditions at Aintree. The second major point is what I call the "limited handicap" category. In the past 26 runnings of the National, 23 have been won by a horse aged between eight and 11 carrying between 10st and 11st 5lbs and priced between 7-1 and 33-1.
For each-way backers it is vital to know that the majority of placings in those 26 races were filled by horses meeting those criteria. In short, in most years the chances of winning or placing in the National are limited to a reasonable number of horses. Last year, all of the first six home fell into the "limited" category.
There's no point in betting horses below 5-1 or above 40s as, in the past 30 years, only one horse has won outside those prices and that was Last Suspect, the 50-1 winner in 1985. Horses that have not previously won a race over three miles or further can also be eliminated.
You must also bet on horses that have enjoyed recent success or have form over the National fences, especially the Becher, Grand Sefton or Topham chases and the National itself. One fall over the big obstacles is permissible – four winners in the last decade all had previously failed to finish the course. Safe jumpers with form in cross-country events and long-distance races such as the Scottish, Welsh, and Irish Grand Nationals and the Eider Chase at Newcastle should be included.
Ignore the trainer – a small Irish stable like that of Silver Birch handler Gordon Elliott has as much chance as a top British yard such as David Pipe's.
Avoid French-breds – they just don't seem to win over 4m 4f. Horses which have had a hard race at the Cheltenham Festival should also be avoided.
Ask the usual questions: are the horse and stable in form, will it get the distance, is the ground right for it? Eliminate as you go along and you will soon be down to seven or eight horses. Pick the two you think best near the top of the betting and two at 16-1 or greater, and bet them all each-way.
This year the horses which best fit my bill are Keith Reveley's 11-year-old Rambling Minster and Becher Chase winner Black Apalachi, while last year's Irish National winner Hear the Echo and Leinster National third Southern Vic are my longer shots.
Current favourite My Will is discounted because he was bred in France, as was Butler's Cabin, but if that hoodoo is to fall it could be this year as they and French-bred L'Ami have a real chance.
All will depend on the ground, however, and I'll update my four tips next Saturday on the website if necessary. And though I don't think he'll win, I'll be rooting for Rambling Minster as he was one of the last horses to be bred by the late, great Scottish trainer Ken Oliver.
The full article contains 706 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
