Pumas are decisive ranking factor

COACHES and players have typically paid little attention to the IRB world rankings since they were introduced in 2003, shrugging them off as something merely for media and supporters to debate, but that has changed dramatically this week.

Even as recently as June, the mindset of Scotland coach Frank Hadden was that victory was more important than any rankings, understandable perhaps after his side escaped a second successive wooden spoon by just two points in their defeat to Italy.

But Hadden is acutely aware of the situation now. The Rugby World Cup draw for New Zealand 2011 will be made in London on 1 December, with three 'bands' of seeds – those ranked 1-4, 5-8 and then the next four automatic qualifiers (Fiji, Italy, Tonga and Scotland/Ireland). Eight qualifiers from around the world will be added into the four pools, in bands four and five, as and when they qualify, so there will again be four pools of five teams with just two progressing from each pool to the quarter-finals as in recent tournaments.

Adding some spice to traditionally meaningless end-of-year friendlies, an almighty battle for the fourth and eighth spots will ensue around the UK, Ireland and France this weekend, with England having another match with New Zealand on 28 November with which to steal a top-four place from Argentina. Three nations are realistically in the running for the fourth spot – the Pumas, England and France, who would step in on Saturday if they beat Australia and the other two lose – and so avoid the possibility of being drawn in the same pool as New Zealand, Australia or South Africa.

Two nations are battling for eighth place – Ireland and Scotland – to avoid ending up in a pool with two nations ranked in the top eight. Ireland are currently in eighth spot, with Scotland in ninth, and Hadden now knows that a win over Canada at Pittodrie today, combined with Argentina beating Ireland in Dublin this afternoon, would promote his side into that eighth place for the World Cup draw next month. Ireland know it too.

When asked if Argentina might be tougher opposition in Dublin because of their determination to remain in the top four seeds, Paul McNaughton, the Ireland team manager, stated: "I don't think they (Argentina] need any other incentive to beat Ireland as they have done it before. But, yes, they still have a chance of regaining that fourth spot in the rankings, putting them in the top tier if other results go the right way for them, so they certainly have something to fight for on Saturday.

"The Scottish match doesn't matter either way for us because they're so far ahead of Canada, so long as they don't lose (Scotland will lose ranking points if they lose, but will not pick up any for winning, as Canada are ranked six places below them]. But we simply can't lose. If we draw or win we retain that eighth spot regardless of what Scotland do with Canada, and if Scotland lose that would put us there too."

• The IRB explains the rankings system thus: "The IRB world rankings are calculated using a 'Points Exchange' system, in which sides take points off each other based on the match result – whatever one side gains, the other loses.

"The system, developed after several years of research of games dating back to 1871, uses indicators such as the relative strength of each team and the margin of victory, and includes an allowance for home advantage.

"For each match, there are only five possible outcomes that can affect points exchanges: either side winning by more than 15 points, either side winning by up to 15 points, or a draw.

"When calculating points exchanges, the home side is treated as though they are three rating points better than their current rating. This has the effect of 'handicapping' the home side. Teams do not earn any credit for losing narrowly to a team ranked higher – you can't win points for losing, or lose points for winning."