Struggle for goals must send Burley scrambling for some new recruits

OKAY, let's recap: Scotland are down to third place in Group 9 and need a win against Iceland on Wednesday or else their prospects of finishing as runners-up will start an inexorable journey down the plughole. They have won one game out of eight under George Burley, they have scored four goals in eight matches, they haven't scored any in their last three, two of which have been at home.

Feel free to scream at any time.

In James McFadden's sad absence, Kenny Miller is Scotland's striker-in-chief. This is Kenny Miller who has only scored in two matches in his last 16, against lowly Kilmarnock who are three points off the bottom of the SPL, and Forfar, who are mid-table in the Third Division.

Nothing against Miller, who tries his socks off every game he plays, but he was charged with cracking the defence of one of the top-six teams in the world on Saturday evening when he hasn't scored against a top-six team in the SPL since September. What chance he had, he blew. On his shoulders sits Scotland's World Cup aspirations.

Or maybe there's somebody else. Steven Fletcher, richly promising though he is, has scored twice in his last 13 games for Hibs. Chris Iwelumo has scored once in his last 18 matches for Wolves. Ross McCormack was flying earlier in the season and was banging in the goals for Cardiff, but only two have come in his last dozen appearances, one of them a penalty. David Clarkson's stats are better, not that it matters. Clarkson ain't getting a look-in.

The question here is not whether these guys would have troubled the Dutch defence but whether they could do any damage to the Icelandic defence on Wednesday. In fact, the question is wider than that. We're asking where the hell is Scotland's next goal coming from but while we're at it we may as well wonder where the hell Scotland's next decent passing performance is coming from.

Scotland's use of the ball has become drastic. Barry Ferguson doesn't play killer passes. He shuffles it about a bit and moves it on, but rarely does he play anything penetrative into an opposing penalty area. Fletcher can do it. Has done it. Did it nicely for Miller in the Arena the other night but doesn't do it nearly often enough.

Fletcher's use of the ball is poor in the main. He gives away possession too easily, but not as easily as Scott Brown does. Brown is a whale of a player at certain things. Commitment, work-rate, breaking up attacks; he's excellent. Where he is lacking – and where he was found out on Saturday – is in his passing. It's massively substandard at that level. So sympathy for the strikers. They're a limited crew but they're not exactly being blessed with chance after chance. Unfortunately, the best strikers aren't around at the moment.

In the eight games before Burley took over, Scotland scored 12 goals. Now, sure, the Faroes were among the eight and so too were Lithuania and South Africa. But so were Italy and France and Ukraine, so these things balance themselves out. From 12 goals to four. It's quite a plummet.

It's also quite obvious what's happened. James McFadden got three of the 12, Kris Boyd got two, Garry O'Connor got two. We won't be seeing McFadden for a while and for as long as Boyd's doing his Greta Garbo routine he's not an option either. So what about O'Connor?

Look, nobody could say that O'Connor is the salvation of Scotland, but he's better than the five options Burley brought to Amsterdam. The Scotland manager didn't pick him in the squad because O'Connor has only recently come back into the Birmingham team having missed nearly five months because of a groin injury.

But he picked Alan Hutton, another man who's only just returned to fitness. Unlike Hutton, O'Connor had a couple of games under his belt. Rusty, no doubt. But fit and well. He should have been on the trip to Amsterdam.

And consideration should be given to putting him in the team on Wednesday night. Are we clutching at straws? Yeah, possibly. But these are desperate times. Four goals in eight games, folks. Time to roll the dice. In any event, O'Connor's numbers add up. They're certainly better than Miller's. O'Connor has started nine matches for Alex McLeish this season and he's scored six goals. Compared to Miller and Iwelumo that's Gerd Müller stuff.

Burley has to play two up front against Iceland. Unless he wants to bring the opprobrium of Hampden down on top of his head he needs to go with two strikers and score a goal or two. He played with a lone striker at home to Norway and the tactic fell flat on its face.

Two men on Wednesday, then, and why not O'Connor with McCormack alongside him? O'Connor is forceful and can handle himself against a physical central defence, McCormack is clever and alive to goal-scoring possibilities. On their better days, at least.

What's to lose?

What are the options? Miller again? Yes, he defends well from the front and his pace is great. He occupies defenders. He pops up in good positions, just like Saturday. He runs like a hare but he finishes like a hound.

Scotland have reached a critical point now. They either produce enough goals to beat Iceland or they forget all hope of qualifying.

New thinking is required of the manager.